Mexicans are concerned that threats from president-elect United States donald trump to impose duty than 25% could affect a wide range of products iconic of Mexico and threaten entire regional economies.
In the west of the country no crop provides income to so many small producers like the avocados. But the growers, collectors and packers of avocados They fear that consumers Americans, faced with 25% higher prices, might simply stop eating guacamole.
“I think that any increase in the price of any product, its demand decreases,” said the grower of avocados Enrique Espinoza. Gardens like his are the economic support in the state of Michoacán, in western Mexico. Mexico. “It would be a tragedy if they closed them.”
The inauguration of Trump administration on January 20—when he said he would impose duty— couldn’t have come at a worse time: it’s when Mexico begins sending boxes of the green fruit to the north for Sunday superbowlthe annual peak of consumption.
José Luis Arroyo Sandoval, a manager of a baler of avocados in Michoacán, says that the economy would be affected.
“It may be that our work will decrease because it is not going to be as attractive and to export,” declared Arroyo, “because it is going to be very expensive. avocadoif in itself it is expensive”.
will affect consumers Americans
Not only could they be affected producers Mexicans; the consumers Americans might also lament.
The leader Mexican business Gina Diez Barroso said at a news conference Tuesday that a U.S. agriculture official told her he had never received as many complaints as when the U.S. government stopped import inspections of avocados Mexicans in 2022.
“Never in his life did he have such chaos in his office, because they stopped avocados Mexicans,” said Diez Barroso.
Espinoza agrees that the consumers They will probably share the pain.
“The gringo needs the avocadothat is, it is a good product, and I believe that they will not stop consuming it,” he noted.
Rather, the measures to counterattack have him worried: if Mexico respond by applying your own dutyAs President Claudia Sheinbaum has hinted, Mexicans will face not only a drop in income, but also high prices for products Americans like cornwhich is basic to feed animals in Mexico.
“There are more poor people here, so in some way it’s going to hit us,” Espinoza added. “The United States does have to pay 25% more for (the products of) Mexico. Very few of us have to pay 25% more than products that we are importing from the United States.
And it’s not just the guacamole: the producers of tequila Mexicans have witnessed a bonanza in the US market. In 2023, the United States imported from Mexico tequila worth 4.6 billion dollars and mezcal for 108 million dollars.
Qproducers of tequila fear custom
This has generated moderate fear among producers of tequilaincluding farmers who grow agave on some of the driest and most marginal soils, which could not support many other crops.
“We are analyzing the statements and reactions from the authorities, a little later we will establish a consensual position with the partners,” declared the National Chamber of the Tequila Industry in a statement.
and representatives of the industry They say that a fall in the consumption of tequila — the third most popular liquor in the United States, behind vodka and premixed cocktails — could affect American bars, restaurants and clubs.
“Ultimately, the duty on the distilled alcoholic beverages of our neighbors to the north and south are going to harm the consumers Americans and lead to job losses throughout the industry of American hospitality as these businesses continue their long recovery from the (COVID-19) pandemic,” the Distilled Beverages Council of the United States said in a statement.
The duty would probably engulf Mexico in an immediate recession. The Mexican financial group Banco Base estimated in a report that for every 1% that the price of Mexican exports increases, their volume falls by 1.33%.
Assuming that the Americans could absorb half of the impact of the duty and simply pay higher prices for Mexican goods, they could still reduce their consumption by 12%, Banco Base estimated.
“This would be reflected in GDP with a contraction of 4.4%,” the bank wrote. “The drop would not only be recorded in 2025, as it would deepen as the tariff lasted longer.”
88% of all trucks pickup comes from Mexico
and the duty could affect some products who don’t consider themselves especially Mexican at all.
The Secretary of Economy of MexicoMarcelo Ebrard, said on Wednesday that 88% of all trucks pickup from North America come from Mexicoalthough it was not clear whether he referred only to parts of the trucks or to its final assembly.
Ebrard stated that the imposition of duty 25% would mean that consumers Americans could have to pay $3,000 more for each truck pickup.
“It would be a shot in the foot,” said the official.
