The results of the surveys The most recent ones, published this Monday, show a tight difference of two points between Kamala Harriswho leads with 48%, and Donald trumpwith 46.8%. This close race has some wondering: What would happen in the event of a draw between both candidates?
In a scenario of drawthe decision would fall to the Congress of USA. The House of Representatives would choose the president, while the Senate would determine the vice president, a situation that would disadvantage Harris due to the Republican majority in the Congresswhere they have 220 of the 435 members.
Although USA has never faced a draw in their elections presidential, the Congress was called to intervene in 1824, when no candidate achieved 270 votes electoral necessary to win.
“If there is a drawthe president is likely to be trump and the Senate remains Republican, possibly by one vote. Although the House of Representatives leans Democratic, this would not apply in this vote, so we could have a scenario trump–Vance,” said Jeremy Mayer, associate professor at George Mason University.
- Mayer, who directs the doctoral and master’s program in Political Science at this university in Virginia, explained to several journalists that the probability of a draw in these elections It is between 1.5% and 2%.
“The last four weeks have shown numbers too close to make predictions. You should not analyze the national data, but focus on states key like Georgia and North Carolina, where trump is ahead, and Pennsylvaniawhere Harris leads by a narrow margin,” Mayer noted.
The states that will define the elections
According to Mayer, Michigan, Wisconsin, PennsylvaniaNevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, as well as Maine and Nevada, are the states that will define the elections. For Mayer, if Harris wins Pennsylvaniaa state that has 19 votes electoralcould ensure the presidency.
“Kamala has 52% probability to win Pennsylvaniabut this state is more than Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Rural areas, very conservative and with Christian communities, represent an important force in the vote. The suburbs, on the other hand, tend to be more educated and less favorable to trump“, explained the professor.
The popular vote vs. the electoral vote
In USAthe voting system for president is based on 538 votes electoralcomposed of 100 senators, 435 representatives and 3 votes of the District of Columbia. A candidate needs 270 votes electoral to win.
Each state has a number of electors equivalent to its number of representatives and senators in the state. Congress. Mayer explained that this system encourages candidates to do Campaign in states where they normally wouldn’t. “Both parties focus on states small ones like North Carolina, because they are key,” Mayer added.
- According to the professor, the electoral voting system allows for a simpler recount in case of disputes and prevents campaigns from focusing exclusively on the states bigger. “It is rare that the popular vote and the electoral vote do not coincide. Generally they are the same,” he added.
An uncertain scenario
Mayer indicated that the surveys They haven’t changed much in recent weeks, although trump has gained strength in this time. Furthermore, the conflicts internationallike those in Israel and Ukraine, could influence the popular vote.
“The situation is very close, 50-50. I would give trump maybe 52% today. If a major setback were to occur in Ukraine, it could impact the perception of Democratic foreign policy,” Mayer concluded, suggesting that any change in the international scenario could be decisive in the final stretch of the Campaign.
